If you're involved in the US printing industry, you surely know who Dr. Joe Webb is. For nearly 30 years he has been a part of the graphic arts industries. Dr. Joe developed the TrendWatch information service (it was sold to Reed Elsevier more than six years ago). He currently writes a weekly column called "Fridays with Dr. Joe" for Whattheythink.com and is the founding partner of the relatively new Printforecast.com.

Joe Webb is a consultant, forecaster, commentator and public speaker. His Ph.D. is from NYU's Center for Graphic Communications Management and Technology. His M.B.A. in MIS is from Iona College. I've heard him present at trade events, and I've always regarded him as a thought leader extraordinaire in this business.

Want to hear him yourself? I have asked Dr. Webb to be a part of our second annual Boston Print Buyers Conference next November. Together with industry expert Frank Romano, he will be enlightening and entertaining us at the keynote dinner - a veritable "Clash of the (Printing) Titans." Additionally, he will make a separate presentation at the conference.

I was curious about the Dr.'s opinion on a few topics - like the economy as it relates to printing, consolidation trends, and what impact the Internet has on printing. He was pleased to answer my questions in detail. This interview will run in two parts.

Dr. Joe, tell me a bit about your data and methodology - in words that I will understand. We are not all economists and Ph.D's.

We do know that Ph.D. stands for “piled higher and deeper.” The methodology is fairly simple. I, with the help of others, am immersed in every bit of industry and economic data I can get my hands on. I use much data from the Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute of Supply Management, and a host of trade associations and corporate sources of data, and we track them over time.

We look for patterns in the data, we compare them, we adjust them for inflation, exchange rates, and other factors where appropriate. We run statistical analyses and some interesting forecasting models. But no matter what we do, we look for a cohesive, sensible story behind the trends that make the data the way they are. We know that statistical data are the results of activities, and understanding what those human activities are is essential to understanding data and forecasting them. To understand a marketplace, you just can't do one thing.

Does the state of the US economy impact the printing industry? How so, and is it a lot or a little?

It does, in very strange ways. A long time ago, the printing industry moved in lockstep with the economy, or actually performed better than the economy. Our statistical work, however, is now quite clear. The relation of print to the economy is actually inverse. When the economy goes up, there are more dollars to spend on new communications technologies that avoid print. When the economy goes down, print does better. I don't know how long this relationship will last, but it started in the late 1990s, is statistically provable, and it persists to this day. What's really interesting is that the economy started to slow in the middle of 2006, and sure enough, print volume started to rise. There were some interesting factors that may have played out in that process, but it was funny watching the statistical model actually work so well.

In your opinion, is this something that professional print buyers should concern themselves with - part of me thinks that print CEOs should follow it (and you) closely. Buyers? Not so much.

Print buyers and their CEOs should do what is best for their company's communications objectives in reaching their target audiences. Let printers worry about making the case for print and how it fits into those objectives.

Next week, in Part 2 of this interview, Joe Webb comments on offshore printing, consolidation issues, and his reputation as The Contrarian.

Visit www.drjoewebb.com as well aswww.printforecast.com for more information about Joe Webb. At this second site, sign up for his free weekly email newsletter about print forecasts.